News
2010 THE START OF THE RECOVERY
Preview of the 2010 Commercial Property Market in the M3/M27 Corrdior
Thu, 21 Jan 2010 14:52:30 +0000
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2010 will be another tough year for the commercial property market in the M3/M27 corridors. However unlike 12 months ago we can look forward to the next 12 with some optimism as the economy emerges from recession and we start to turn the corner.
That is not to say that the recovery will be smooth and swift. In fact the opposite is almost certain, given the trauma that the UK economy has suffered over the last 2 years and the massive national debt that is now being carried.
The consequences for the commercial property market in our region will be mixed with confidence, the availability of finance and tenant stability all contributing as the main drivers to recovery. Occupiers will continue to hold the upper hand both in terms of freehold vacant possession prices and competitive and flexible lease terms. This is a result of ongoing restrictions on bank funding keeping downward pressure on capital values and an over-supply of stock in most sectors enabling Tenants to ‘name their terms’. The situation is illustrated most poignantly with regard to offices in our area. Good quality modern space can currently be secured in Basingstoke for just £125 per sq ft freehold and in Camberley at less than £10 per sq ft leasehold plus incentives. These are values more consistent with the 1980s than 2010!
Such exceptional value for occupiers will not continue long into the new decade, particularly as the lack of speculative development in recent years starts to impact.
The industrial and warehouse sector will once again show resilience in our region during 2010 and as a factor of comparatively low vacancy rates in most areas. Generally there will be pressure on rents to increase from the 2009 levels ranging from £9.25 per sq ft in the upper M3 corridor to £7 per sq ft at Southampton.
Retail will remain very difficult in 2010 both in prime and secondary areas. The fragile trading performance of both multiple and local retailers and the high vacancy rates in most of our town centres will keep rents static at best.
The resurgence of the commercial property investment market over the last few months is likely to continue into at least the first half of 2010, as investors recognise and seek to take advantage of the good value being offered by property relative to bonds or equities.
2010 is also an Election year. This should encourage increased market activity before inevitable austerity measures are introduced by the new Government (whichever the colour!). The property market will need to brace itself and already in 2010 has to contend with the Rating Revaluation taking effect from 1st April.
2010 is also a milestone year for London Clancy, marking our 20th year as a Practice and our 10th anniversary in Southampton. We look forward to the beginning of the new decade both with optimism and realism as the commercial property market starts along the next upswing of the property cycle.
BY MARK A CLANCY FRICS
DIRECTOR, LONDON CLANCY
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